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March 15, 2020, 9:37 p.m. ET
Coronavirus Live Updates: C.D.C. Offers New Guidelines, Fed Slashes Rates and Italian Deaths Jump
New York City schools to close. The Fed cuts rates to near-zero. Italy’s surge in cases and deaths raises urgent questions about its overwhelmed hospitals.

RIGHT NOWThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends no gatherings of 50 or more people in the U.S. for the next eight weeks.

Here’s what you need to know:
The Fed slashes rates to near-zero.
No gatherings of 50 or more for now, urges the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Cuomo says New York City schools will close this week.
California tells residents 65 and older to stay at home as more states add restrictions.
Italy’s deaths jump, Germany closes borders and restrictions multiply around the world.
A top U.S. health official says Americans should be prepared to “hunker down.”
At airports, passengers describe long waits and confusion.
The Fed slashes rates to near-zero.
Image
At a news conference on Sunday afternoon, President Trump congratulated the Federal Reserve for its slashing rates to nearly zero.Credit…Ting Shen for The New York Times
The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near-zero and unveiled a sweeping set of programs — including plans to snap up huge amounts of government and mortgage-backed debt — in an effort to backstop the United States economy as the spread of coronavirus poses a dire threat to economic growth.

“The coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States,” the central bank said in a statement on Sunday. “The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses.”

At a news conference on Sunday afternoon, President Trump congratulated the Federal Reserve for its slashing rates to nearly zero.

“It makes me very happy,” he said.

Lowering interest rates is supposed to help goose the economy by making it cheaper for households and businesses to borrow money, which they will hopefully use to buy houses, cars and invest in new plants and equipment.

Besides cutting its key interest rate by a full percentage point, returning it to a range of 0 to 0.25 percent, the Fed said that it would increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $500 billion and its holdings of government mortgage-backed securities by at least $200 billion “over coming months.”

“The committee will continue to closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate,” it said.

The Fed also encouraged banks to use its discount window, which provides ready access to financing, and said it was “encouraging banks to use their capital and liquidity buffers as they lend to households and businesses.” The Fed also eliminated bank reserve requirements — a suite of efforts meant to free up cash for the banks to keep lending.

No gatherings of 50 or more for now, urges the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Sunday that no mass gatherings with 50 people or more — including weddings, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events or conferences — be held in the United States for the next eight weeks in one of the federal government’s most sweeping efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

The C.D.C. said that its recommendation, which would dramatically change life in the United States for the next two months, does not apply to “the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses” and added that it was not intended to supersede the advice of local health officials.

“This recommendation is made in an attempt to reduce introduction of the virus into new communities,” it said, “and to slow the spread of infection in communities already affected by the virus.”

And the C.D.C. urged people to take care with even small gatherings. “Events of any size should only be continued if they can be carried out with adherence to guidelines for protecting vulnerable populations, hand hygiene, and social distancing,” its recommendation said. “When feasible, organizers could modify events to be virtual.”

Cuomo says New York City schools will close this week.
New York City’s public school system, the nation’s largest with 1.1 million students, will begin shutting down this week, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo said on Sunday, in what is the city’s most aggressive and disruptive effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Public schools in Long Island and Westchester will also close this week, the governor said.

The city and union leaders are working on plans for emergency child care for essential city workers whose children attend public schools. Mr. Cuomo said earlier on Sunday that any decision to close New York City’s schools must include a plan to allow parents who are health care workers to continue to report to hospitals.

More than a dozen states have already closed schools, creating concerns that children may miss meals and parents may not be able to stay home from work. On Sunday, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said school closures now affect 80 to 85 percent of all schoolchildren in his state.

After Los Angeles Unified School District said that it was closing, school officials said they would open 40 family resource centers to provide child care and meals to students whose parents cannot get out of work. North Carolina closed its public schools on Saturday.

The decision to close New York City’s schools came after the mayor faced increasing pressure throughout the day, including from the governor. Mr. Cuomo said in an interview with The New York Times on Sunday afternoon that the schools should close “as soon as Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday.”

“I believe that the New York City schools should be closed, period,” he said. “We also need an immediate plan to provide child care for essential workers and for food programs for the children.”

Get an informed guide to the global outbreak with our daily coronavirus newsletter.

The highly influential union that represents New York City’s public health care workers, 1199SEIU, reversed course on Sunday and called on the mayor to close the city’s public schools. The union had been the only major union supporting his decision to keep schools open.

California tells residents 65 and older to stay at home as more states add restrictions.
California called for all people 65 and older to shelter in their homes. Massachusetts moved to ban dining in bars and restaurants beginning Tuesday, effectively closing Boston’s bars for St. Patrick’s Day. And Puerto Rico set some of the strictest measures in the United States, imposing a 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew and closing nonessential businesses.

As the number of coronavirus cases in the United States climbed to over 3,100 across 49 states on Sunday, and after weeks of conflicting signals from the federal government, state and local officials across the nation began enacting stricter measures to try to slow the virus’s spread.

Massachusetts said that beginning Tuesday bars and restaurants would only be able to offer takeout and delivery only, banned gatherings of more than 25 people and ordered all public and private schools to close Tuesday.

“I realize these measures are unprecedented,” Gov. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts said Sunday night, “but we’re asking our residents to take a deep breath and understand the rationale behind this guidance.”

The state of Ohio ordered restaurants and bars to close as of 9 p.m. Sunday, but said it would allow food to be carried out and delivered. Maryland’s governor ordered casinos, racetracks and betting facilities to close “indefinitely.”

Even as public health experts were publicly urging social distancing, Representative Devin Nunes, Republican of California, went on Fox News and encouraged healthy people to dine out at restaurants. “Likely you can get in easily,” he said. “Let’s not hurt the working people in this country that are relying on wages and tips to keep their small business going.”

And Oklahoma’s governor was criticized on social media after sharing a selfie on Twitter Saturday of him with his children having dinner at a packed food hall in the heart of Oklahoma City. In the since-deleted tweet, he captioned the photo with, “Eating with my kids and all my fellow Oklahomans at the @CollectiveOKC. It’s packed tonight! #supportlocal #OklaProud.”

The scope of the public health crisis became even clearer over the weekend as officials in Louisiana, New York and Virginia reported their first deaths tied to the coronavirus. Only West Virginia was without a single diagnosis.

In the Omaha, Neb., area, officials reported the first known instance of community spread. In Illinois, a nursing facility where a woman tested positive was placed on lockdown. And in Pittsburgh, where the first local cases were announced on Saturday, city leaders urged bars to limit the number of people they allowed inside.

New York City officials advised all members of the United Nations diplomatic community that they should assume they have been exposed to the coronavirus, should practice the “maximum-possible social distancing” and should not expect any special accommodations if they are sickened, according to a memo of a teleconference briefing shared by diplomats.

Two American emergency-room doctors — one in Washington State and one in New Jersey — were in critical condition with Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, the American College of Emergency Physicians said on Saturday. Dr. William Jaquis, the organization’s president, said it was unclear whether the doctor in Washington, who is in his 40s, had contracted the virus at the hospital. The physician in Paterson, N.J., who is 70, had been leading his hospital’s emergency preparedness.

Authorities in Texas began preparing judges for the possibility that they may have to be ready to order the quarantine of coronavirus patients who refuse to isolate themselves.

Despite the clearing out of grocery store shelves in recent days, the nation’s biggest retailers, dairy farmers and meat producers said the food supply chain remains intact and has been ramping up to meet the unprecedented stockpiling brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

At the news conference on Sunday afternoon, Mr. Trump said he had had a phone call with chief executives of several food suppliers who said they were committed to staying open through the coronavirus pandemic. He said the call was “very reassuring” and said there was no need to “hoard” essential food supplies.

“You don’t have to buy so much, take it easy, just relax,” Mr. Trump said. “We’re doing great, it all will pass.”

Italy’s deaths jump, Germany closes borders and restrictions multiply around the world.
The coronavirus continued its assault on Italy, the hardest hit country outside of China, with officials on Sunday reporting the number of deaths rose to 1,809 — a 25 percent increase over the day before and the largest one-day uptick yet of any country.

The 368 deaths Italy reported exceeds the highest single-day number China reported at the height of its outbreak. China’s highest daily toll was on Feb. 13, when the country reported 254 new deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

The staggering caseload in Italy topped 24,700, even as the entire country has been locked down for a week, an escalation that is only likely to increase, raising urgent questions about how overloaded hospitals, particularly the hard-hit north, will cope.

The Vatican said on Sunday that its traditional services during the week before Easter, which usually draw tens of thousands of people, would not be open to the public next month, interrupting a historic tradition.

Germany will close its borders with Austria, Denmark, France, Luxembourg and Switzerland in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the country’s interior minister said on Sunday, following several other European Union member states in restricting the freedom of movement across the continent.

Spain and France announced drastic countrywide restrictions this weekend. The countries are the hardest hit after Italy.

On Sunday, Spanish officials reported nearly 8,000 cases of coronavirus and 288 deaths. The country ordered all residents to confine themselves to their homes — and to leave only to buy food, go to work, seek medical care or assist older people and others in need. The government also ordered all schools, restaurants and bars to close.

The Spanish authorities said that the prime minister’s wife, Begoña Gómez, had tested positive for the virus.

France announced the closing of all “non-indispensable” businesses, including restaurants, bars and movie theaters, after a sharp uptick in coronavirus cases. The number of French cases passed 5,420 on Sunday, with 127 deaths. On Saturday, 300 coronavirus patients were in critical condition — half of them under 60 years of age.

On Sunday, France’s transportation minister said the country would begin reducing plane, train and bus services between cities.

One after another, countries around the world on Sunday continued to implement extraordinary measures as they raced to contain the spread of the coronavirus, closing schools, shuttering restaurants and bars, mandating quarantines and severely limiting travel.

China’s capital, Beijing, is toughening its rules for international arrivals, requiring everyone coming from overseas to spend the mandatory 14-day isolation at a quarantine site that they will be required to pay for.

South Africa declared a national state of disaster, closing schools, shutting down ports and banning gatherings of more than 100 people. South African citizens returning from other some high-risk countries will be tested and face quarantines. The government is strengthening surveillance and testing systems.

Austria banned gatherings of more than five people and imposed steep fines for those who disobeyed a far-reaching curfew. Public parks, sporting fields and restaurants will close from Monday, and fines for violations are up to 3,600 euros. Travelers from Britain, the Netherlands, Russia and Ukraine are being added to a lengthening list of those banned from entering Austria.

Ireland is closing its pubs for two weeks, including on St. Patrick’s Day, and barring gatherings of more than 100 people.

The Netherlands announced a lockdown that will last until April 6, closing schools and child care facilities. Restaurants, cafes, gyms and sporting clubs will also be closed.

Manila, the densely populated capital of the Philippines, went under lockdown. Public gatherings are banned and classes suspended for a month; travel in and out of the Manila metropolitan area is restricted; and soldiers and police officers have set up traffic checkpoints to take people’s temperatures. Some in the country fear a return to a Marcos-style dictatorship.

A top U.S. health official says Americans should be prepared to “hunker down.”
A top health official said on Sunday that stronger efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus would roll out over the next several weeks, a period he characterized as crucial for controlling the outbreak.

Appearing across a number of Sunday morning news programs, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that travel bans enacted last week have helped curb transmission, but that U.S. citizens would have to make personal sacrifices and comply with government guidelines to avoid a “worst-case scenario.”

On NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Dr. Fauci cautioned, “Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing.”

Underscoring the risk that the virus poses to the nation’s front-line medical workers, two emergency medicine doctors, in New Jersey and Washington State, are in critical condition as a result of the coronavirus, the American College of Emergency Physicians said.

While the Trump administration has banned international travelers coming from high-risk countries and regions, such as China, Iran, and much of Europe, Dr. Fauci said domestic travel restrictions hadn’t been seriously discussed.

“I don’t see that right now or in the immediate future,” he said on “This Week.” “But remember, we are very open-minded about whatever it takes to preserve the health of the American public.”

In an interview with Brianna Keilar on CNN, Dr. Fauci said that progress was being made with companies like Walmart and CVS to improve diagnostic and testing capabilities. But he cautioned that disruptions to daily life were likely to continue.

“For a while, life is not going to be the way it used to be in the United States,” he said. “We have to just accept that if we want to do what’s best for the American public.”

Meanwhile, Daniel Goldman, who as the top investigator for the House Intelligence Committee played a leading role in the impeachment of Mr. Trump, has tested positive, a House official confirmed on Sunday.

Mr. Goldman left the committee earlier this month. The panel’s chairman, Representative Adam B. Schiff of California, said Sunday that neither he nor any of his other aides were exhibiting symptoms. Mr. Schiff had already canceled public events and directed his staff to work from home.

At airports, passengers describe long waits and confusion.
As the U.S. government rushed on Saturday to implement Mr. Trump’s restrictions on travel from Europe, part of an effort to stop the spread of the coronavirus, chaos ensued at some of America’s biggest airports.

In Dallas, travelers posted photos on Twitter of long winding lines in the airport. In New York, customs agents in paper and plastic masks boarded a flight from Paris. And in Chicago, where travelers reported standing in line for hours, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois tagged Mr. Trump in a series of angry tweets about the long waits, saying, “The federal government needs to get its s@#t together. NOW.”

Paige Hardy, an American student who left behind her graduate studies in London because she feared a broader travel ban, said a series of confusing announcements in the air and upon landing in Dallas led to alarm on the plane late Saturday. She posted a video on Twitter of travelers being asked to raise their hands if they had been in mainland Europe. Because of the delay, she also missed her connecting flight.

“It truly felt like an apocalyptic scenario,” said Ms. Hardy, who left many of her belongings behind in England and was unsure whether she would be able to return.

The confusion came as concern spread about the coronavirus pandemic, which has now been identified in more than 2,700 people in the United States and has prompted Mr. Trump to declare a national emergency.

“At this time, we are working quickly with our partners to operationalize a plan which will outline where these travelers will be routed and what the screening process will be,” said Marcus Hubbard, a spokesman for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Chad Wolf, the acting secretary of Homeland Security, said on Twitter that he was aware of the delays and was working to add staffing.

American Airlines said on Saturday that it would suspend almost all of its long-haul international flights beginning Monday in response to decreased demand. The airline said the suspensions would last until at least May 6 and would represent a 75 percent decline in international capacity compared with the same period last year.

Mnuchin will ask Congress to reinstate powers used in 2008 financial crisis.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday that he would ask Congress to reinstate powers that were used during the 2008 financial crisis to support the economy as the coronavirus threatens to grind U.S. business activity to a halt.

The comments suggest that the White House is bracing for a widespread downturn that could harm sectors well beyond the travel and cruise ship industries, and that the federal government could need to return to the type of crisis-era measures that were ultimately scaled back by lawmakers in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.

Mr. Mnuchin and Jerome H. Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, have been in daily conversations about how to buttress the economy, which faces the prospect of a deep recession as the coronavirus spreads around the world.

“Certain tools were taken away that I’m going to go back to Congress and ask for,” Mr. Mnuchin said on “This Week” on ABC.

In a separate interview on Fox News Sunday, Mr. Mnuchin made clear that he was talking about regulations that were imposed by Dodd-Frank.

That law, passed in the wake of the worst financial crisis in decades, took away the Fed’s power to lend to individual failing firms or to take assets off their balance sheets, requiring the central bank to extend emergency credit only through broad-based facilities designed to help the financial system as a whole. Congress also took away Treasury’s ability to use a program, known as the Exchange Stabilization Fund, to guarantee money market funds.

Starbucks will serve “to go” only and a French luxury company will make hand sanitizer instead of perfume.
Starbucks said Sunday it was moving to a “to go” model for at least two weeks in the U.S. and Canada to encourage social distancing.

Customers will not be permitted to sit in the cafe or patio areas, but can still walk up and order at the counter, through the Starbucks app, via the drive-through and by delivery. Stores located in communities with high clusters of cases and high-social gathering locations, such as malls and university campuses, will be closed temporarily, the company said in a statement.

LVMH, the French company known for luxury items, said Sunday that it would redirect its cosmetic division to produce mass quantities of hydroalcoholic gel and give it to French health authorities.

The company said in a statement that it would use the facilities where it produces fragrances under the Christian Dior, Givenchy and Guerlain labels to make the sanitizing products starting Monday.

Some retailers have been closing their doors. Nike said on Sunday that it would shut all of its stores in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, New Zealand and Australia from Monday until March 27 to fight the spread of the coronavirus.

Urban Outfitters said on Saturday that it would shut all its stores until further notice, and Apple said it would close its stores outside mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan for two weeks.

Under pressure to add stricter restrictions, Britain will ask older residents to self-isolate.
As countries across Europe impose lockdowns and restrict travel, Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain is facing a swelling tide of opposition to his government’s more relaxed measures to stem the coronavirus.

In an open letter, nearly 350 scientists and doctors called on him to immediately impose the kind of social distancing steps that countries like Italy, France and Spain have adopted.

They warned that Britain’s approach — in which the government has talked of impending moves like quarantining older residents and closing schools but pushed off the timing for 10 days or longer — was putting lives at risk.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock told the British broadcaster Sky News that the action plan under consideration including asking Britons over 70 to self-isolate for up to four months to reduce their risk of contracting the virus. The government is also expected to ban large gatherings starting next week and to order people over age 70 to remain at home.

The rate of infection in the country has been climbing as rapidly as elsewhere in Europe. Britain had at least 1,370 confirmed cases and 35 deaths as of Sunday, and the United States this weekend extended its ban on travelers from most of Europe to include those coming from Britain, as well.

On Sunday, Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office also advised against “all but essential travel to the U.S.A., due to restrictions put in place by the U.S. government” on foreign nationals arriving from Britain and Ireland from Monday.

Chinese journalists fight back against government censorship.
As it tightens restrictions on people entering the country, the Chinese government also is leading a sweeping campaign to purge the public sphere of dissent, censoring news reports, harassing citizen journalists and shutting down news sites.

But Chinese journalists, buoyed by an outpouring of support from the public and widespread calls for free speech, are fighting back in a rare challenge to the ruling Communist Party.

The authorities have struggled to rein in coverage of the outbreak, in part because the Chinese public has resorted to innovative methods to preserve a record of what has transpired.

When the magazine Profile published a damning interview with a doctor who was warned not to share information about the virus as it first spread in Wuhan, the article disappeared. But Chinese internet users brought the story back to life, using emojis, morse code and obscure languages to render the interview in ways that would evade censors.

“This time the government’s control of free speech has directly damaged the interests and lives of ordinary people,” said Li Datong, a retired newspaper editor in Beijing. “Everyone knows this kind of big disaster happens when you don’t tell the truth.”

A cruise ship is heading to France with a coronavirus quandary.
An Italian ship on a trans-Atlantic voyage has become the cruise industry’s latest case of possible mass exposure.

The Costa Luminosa isolated 1,427 passengers in their rooms on Sunday afternoon en route to Marseille, France from Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Over the past few days, one recent passenger with the infection died, two others were found to have it and three more suspected of having it have been removed from the ship.

One of the infected passengers was so ill that the ship called an ambulance to pick her up during a stop in Puerto Rico, on March 8. Samples from her and her husband were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, delaying the diagnosis until this past Friday. Both were positive.

However, the ship, which is run by Carnival’s Italy-based Costa Cruises, did not increase sanitary protocols or begin testing temperatures until late Saturday afternoon, after receiving confirmation of the two cases from the Puerto Rican government.

“The protection of the health and safety of passengers and crew members is a top priority for Costa Cruises,” the line said in a statement, adding that sanitation levels had been “further raised in order to guarantee the maximum level of hygiene and safety for guests and crew.”

A series of cruise ships have had to confront exposures onboard, and four major lines have announced they would suspend departures from the United States for at least 30 days, allowing those currently at sea to continue. The question is where they will find a port.

The Costa Luminosa was turned away from Antigua and Spain. It is expected to arrive in France on Thursday, where all but the Italians are expected to disembark, and then head to a final stop in Savona, Italy.

Reporting was contributed by Mitch Smith, Mark Landler, Jonathan Weisman, Elisabetta Povoledo, Andrea Salcedo, Austin Ramzy, Tiffany May, Iliana Magra, Cliff Levy, Kristen Danis, Katrin Bennhold, Jason Gutierrez, Mariel Padilla, Robert Chiarito, Isabel Kershner, Mujib Mashal, Raphael Minder, Neil MacFarquhar, Jack Ewing, Najim Rahim, Livia Albeck-Ripka, Hannah Beech, Marc Santora, Julie Bosman, Richard Fausset, Johanna Berendt, Richard C. Paddock, Muktita Suhartono, Elian Peltier, Damien Cave, Javier Hernandez, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Mihir Zaveri, Patricia Mazzei, Frances Robles, Badra Sharma, Annie Karni, Abdi Latif Dahir, Zach Montague, Claire Moses, Nina Siegal, Melissa Eddy, Vanessa Friedman, Vanessa Swales, Monica Davey and Thomas Fuller.

The Coronavirus Outbreak
Answers to your most common questions:
Updated March 14, 2020

What is a coronavirus?
It is a novel virus named for the crownlike spikes that protrude from its surface. The coronavirus can infect both animals and people and can cause a range of respiratory illnesses from the common cold to lung lesions and pneumonia.
How contagious is the virus?
It seems to spread very easily from person to person, especially in homes, hospitals and other confined spaces. The pathogen can travel through the air, enveloped in tiny respiratory droplets that are produced when a sick person breathes, talks, coughs or sneezes.
Where has the virus spread?
The virus, which originated in Wuhan, China, has sickened more than 154,800 in at least 130 countries and more than 5,700 have died. The spread has slowed in China but is gaining speed in Europe and the United States. World Health Organization officials said the outbreak qualifies as a pandemic.
What symptoms should I look out for?
Symptoms, which can take between two to 14 days to appear, include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Milder cases may resemble the flu or a bad cold, but people may be able to pass on the virus even before they develop symptoms.
How do I keep myself and others safe?
Washing your hands frequently is the most important thing you can do, along with staying at home when you’re sick and avoiding touching your face.
How can I prepare for a possible outbreak?
Keep a 30-day supply of essential medicines. Get a flu shot. Have essential household items on hand. Have a support system in place for elderly family members.
What if I’m traveling?
The State Department has issued a global Level 3 health advisory telling United States citizens to “reconsider travel” to all countries because of the worldwide effects of the coronavirus. This is the department’s second-highest advisory.
How long will it take to develop a treatment or vaccine?
Several drugs are being tested, and some initial findings are expected soon. A vaccine to stop the spread is still at least a year away.

A new renewable energy startup company has come up with a low-cost, zero-emissions solution to the thorny issue surrounding what happens when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing.

Paradoxically, the more the world embraces clean energy like solar and wind, the more it must embrace something markedly less-clean—diesel fuel or batteries.

In a building cut-off from a reliable grid powered by fossil fuel, diesel generators might be used to cover the hours of darkness when solar panels cease providing electricity. An alternative to this is to store the energy generated from the sun during the day in batteries, but along with representing a serious recycling problem, batteries require rare-earth minerals that are obtained from environmentally-destructive mining operations.

“Batteries are very expensive to store power for a 24 hour period,” says Jonas Eklind, CEO of Azelio, the Swedish energy startup that has potentially solved this problem for good. “If you want to store a lot of renewable energy, the most cost efficient way of storing this is thermal energy.”

In the always forward-thinking countries of Scandinavia, Azelio adapted an old Volvo assembly line factory to manufacture their patented, industry-first thermal energy storage system that will allow people to keep the energy that their standard PV solar panels generate during the day so they can use it in evenings.

And, instead of the critical energy storage component using rare and expensive minerals, the Azelio system uses recycled aluminum, which emits nothing, is much cheaper than lithium, and—as Jonas joked during an interview with GNN—“only lasts 62,000 years.”

Molten Aluminum can Save the Earth
The former CEO of a battery company, Jonas helped start this remarkable energy storage project in 2016 when he came onboard, around the same time Azelio was looking into thermal storage technology.

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“When we started the project, we had a conversion unit that converts high temperatures into electricity,” he said. This device was called a Stirling Generator, and at first they would use biogas from landfills, water purification units—or from manure in a combustion engine to generate electricity—but after running numerous computer simulations on cost and energy capacity, determined that aluminum was the best choice.

Photons absorbed by solar panels on your roof enter into the system where an aluminum alloy is heated so it moves from a solid to a liquid. This allows for the storage of an incredibly dense amount of energy within the material which can be sent as heat into the Stirling Generator and turned into electricity on demand, with zero emissions and at a lower cost.

This is in direct contrast to fossil fuels, uranium rods or pellets, or diesel fuel, because the energy in the aluminum can constantly be melted and hardened again to produce or store energy.

With its high energy density, the material has the ability to store energy for an extended period of time, while the aluminum suffers no degradation in capacity over time.

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Versatile yet Stable
The technology would prove to be ideal in parts of the world where grid reliability is low, like in Southern Africa where Jonas estimates that people only have access to a stable power grid 45% of the time.

Azelio’s thermal storage would allow for people to implement solar into a community, an industry, or just their homes, to defend against failing or unreliable grids, which Jonas says is becoming more and more normal even in the developed world. In his home country of Sweden, during the long winter, trees knock out power all the time, forcing rural communities to switch to diesel generators or similar interventions—sometimes for weeks.

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“Our system can give you decentralized power based on solar and wind so you can build a local micro-grid that provides you with almost everything you need 24 hours a day,” said Jonas.

And one of the really exceptional things about Azelio’s system is that, in theory, it’s as scalable as necessary; from 100 kilowatts per-hour, up to 100 megawatts per-hour, and more. Though it is maximized for solar power, it can easily work the same way for tidal or hydropower, biofuels, and wind.

Most city or town grids are split up into multiple components that feed off of, support, and borrow from one another to remain stable. Like normal solar power that utilizes energy from from the sun and sells the excess into the grid before later buying back from the grid at nighttime, Azelio’s thermal storage can fit into the baseload power of a modern established grid as much or as little as is required—whether that’s 10% of total power needs or 90%.

Azelio technology is inaugurated at the Noor solar power plant in Morroco, March 5, 2020
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Azelio is conducting three verification tests this year—first, in their home country of Sweden, and two others in partnership with renewable energy companies. On March 5th, they inaugurated their thermal storage technology at the massive Noor solar power complex in Morocco, teaming up with Masen, and later this year, they will launch in Abu Dhabi with Masdar. In addition to these, Azelio has received various customer enquiries of a potential value in excess of 16 billion euro, including one customer in California who wants the system both for wind and solar energy.

“In 2025, with what we have promised to the market for the cost of electricity coming out of the system, we can possibly compete with large scale installations where we need to power a whole city.”

cleaning supplies, soap and hand sanitizer as residents seek to protect themselves from coronavirus, a homemade sanitizer recipe may come in handy

, hand sanitizer is in short supply.

After news of 16 confirmed coronavirus cases in Michigan prompted prolonged school closures, canceled public events and work-from-home orders for many workers, shoppers began emptying store shelves of sanitary and medical supplies in hopes of protecting themselves against a more widespread outbreak.

Some people have even set up side gigs buying up store stock and reselling it at a markup. Attorney General Dana Nessel has threatened to “bring the hammer down” on those caught price-gouging.

The latest: Coronavirus Tracker: What Michigan needs to know, with map of known cases
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Can I get tested for coronavirus in Michigan and other questions answered
If you can’t find sanitizer on the shelves and don’t want to overpay on the black market, you might want to consider making your own. The World Health Organization recommends a recipe containing nine parts 99 percent isopropyl alcohol (also known as rubbing alcohol), a bit of hydrogen peroxide and a moisturizing agent, such as glycerol or aloe vera gel, though it appears to be written for Nobel laureates rather than mortals.

You can concoct your own recipe from aloe vera and 99 percent rubbing alcohol (or seek inspiration from a host of recipes posted online) so long as the mixture is made of at least 60 percent alcohol. Any less, and it won’t be an effective germ-killer, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But note it’s important to get the concentration right or your sanitizer may not be effective or will be too harsh on your skin, which is why several health organizations urge people to avoid DIY concoctions.

Sanitizer is no substitute for hand washing. The best way to keep germs including coronavirus off your hands is to wash for at least 20 seconds with soap and water.

If you insist, John Protaciewicz, chair of Case Western Reserve University’s Chemistry Department, recommends a ratio of rubbing alcohol to aloe vera as 2/3 cup to 1/3 cup, which could work out to about 62 percent alcohol, just above CDC guidelines.
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Stir the ingredients to combine them, then pour the mixture into a clean plastic bottle or soap dispenser. When using the mixture, rub it on the surfaces of both hands until your hands are dry.

But also note: Sanitizer is no substitute for hand washing. The best way to keep germs including coronavirus off your hands is to wash for at least 20 seconds with soap and water.

Sandro Cinti, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Michigan, agreed Friday in a Facebook Q&A that getting 60 percent or more of alcohol is critical.

"There are a lot of naturopathic things coming out. People saying I’ve got this olive oil and thyme and that should do it. It won’t. Those things don’t work. There’s no evidence they work, and all they will do is give you a false sense of security that you’re protecting yourself. So I know that it’s difficult to get hand sanitizing material out there. People will be trying to make this stuff at home. I think that’s probably not something we should do on a wide basis, but if you do it, make sure it’s 60 percent alcohol at least.”

Here is additional guidance on how to prevent the spread of disease:

Wash your hands often, especially after blowing your nose, coughing, sneezing, or engaging in other activities that may dirty your hands. Use soap and water and scrub for at least 20 seconds.
Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth with unwashed hands.
Avoid coming into contact with others who are sick.
If you are sick, stay home and avoid contact with others.
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China Spins Tale That the U.S. Army Started the Coronavirus Epidemic
After criticizing American officials for politicizing the pandemic, Chinese officials and news outlets have floated unfounded theories that the United States was the source of the virus.

The Pentagon sent 17 teams with more than 280 athletes and other staff members to the Military World Games in Wuhan, China, in October.Credit…

BEIJING — China is pushing a new theory about the origins of the coronavirus: It is an American disease that might have been introduced by members of the United States Army who visited Wuhan in October.

There is not a shred of evidence to support that, but the notion received an official endorsement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, whose spokesman accused American officials of not coming clean about what they know about the disease.

The intentional spreading of an unfounded conspiracy theory — which recirculated on China’s tightly controlled internet on Friday — punctuated a downward spiral in relations between the two countries that has been fueled by the basest instincts of officials on both sides.

The insinuation came in a series of posts on Twitter by Zhao Lijian, a ministry spokesman who has made good use of the platform, which is blocked in China, to push a newly aggressive, and hawkish, diplomatic strategy. It is most likely intended to deflect attention from China’s own missteps in the early weeks of the epidemic by sowing confusion or, at least, uncertainty at home and abroad.

Mr. Zhao’s posts appeared to be a retort to similarly unsubstantiated theories about the origins of the outbreak that have spread in the United States. Senior officials there have called the epidemic the “Wuhan virus,” and at least one senator hinted darkly that the epidemic began with the leak of a Chinese biological weapon.

[Read: Two women fell sick from the coronavirus. One survived.]

“The conspiracy theories are a new, low front in what they clearly perceive as a global competition over the narrative of this crisis,” said Julian B. Gewirtz, a scholar at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard.

“There are a few Chinese officials who appear to have gone to the Donald J. Trump School of Diplomacy,” added Mr. Gewirtz, who recently published a paper on China’s handling of the AIDS epidemic, after a similar disinformation campaign. “This small cadre of high-volume Chinese officials don’t seem to realize that peddling conspiracy theories is totally self-defeating for China, at a moment when it wants to be seen as a positive contributor around the world.”

Continue reading the main story
The circulation of disinformation is not a new tactic for the Communist Party state. The United States, in particular, is often a foil of Chinese propaganda efforts. Last year, Beijing explicitly accused the American government of supporting public protests in Hong Kong in an effort to weaken the party’s rule.

The old tactic has been amplified by more combative public diplomacy and a new embrace of a social media platform that is blocked in China to spread a message abroad.

Get an informed guide to the global outbreak with our daily coronavirus newsletter.

Victor Shih, an associate professor at the University of California at San Diego who studies Chinese politics, said that while the campaign was very likely an attempt to distract and deflect blame, a more worrisome possibility was that some officials fabricated the idea and persuaded top leaders to believe it.

Continue reading the main story
“If the leadership really believes in the culpability of the U.S. government,” he warned, “it may behave in a way that dramatically worsens the bilateral relationship.”

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China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has faced sharp criticism for the government’s initial handling of the outbreak, even at home. Public anger erupted in February when a doctor who was punished for warning his colleagues about the coronavirus died, prompting censors to redouble their efforts to stifle public criticism.

Chinese officials have repeatedly urged officials in other countries not to politicize what is a public health emergency. Conservatives in the United States, in particular, have latched on to loaded terms that have been criticized for stigmatizing the Chinese people. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo referred to the “Wuhan virus,” while Representative Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California, called it the “Chinese coronavirus.”

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In response, Chinese officials and state news media have stepped up their criticism of American officials’ comments.

Only days before Mr. Zhao’s latest post, the Xinhua news agency published a commentary denouncing “Washington’s poisonous coronavirus politics” and warning that spreading rumors simply encouraged “fear, division and hate.”

“Their dangerously irresponsible statements are highly counterproductive at this drastic hour that demands solidarity and cooperation,” the commentary, written by Gao Wencheng, said, “and could be much more menacing than the virus itself.”

The coronavirus, according to all evidence, emanated from Wuhan, China, in late December. Scientists have not yet identified a “patient zero” or a precise source of the virus, though preliminary studies have linked it to a virus in bats that passed through another mammal before infecting humans.

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Continue reading the main story
A senior official of China’s National Health Commission, Liang Wannian, said at a briefing in Beijing last month that the likely carrier was a pangolin, an endangered species that is trafficked almost exclusively to China for its meat and for its scales, which are prized for use in traditional medicine.

The first cluster of patients was reported at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, and studies have since suggested that the virus could have been introduced there by someone already infected. Wuhan and the surrounding province of Hubei account for the overwhelming amount of cases and deaths, so there is no scientific reason to believe the virus began elsewhere.

Mr. Zhao’s assertion began with a post linking to a video of the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Robert R. Redfield, testifying before the House on Wednesday and suggesting that some flu deaths might have been caused by the coronavirus.

“When did patient zero begin in US?” Mr. Zhao wrote on Twitter, first in English and separately in Chinese. “How many people are infected. What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your date! US owe us an explanation.”

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Continue reading the main story
Mr. Zhao appeared to refer to the Military World Games, which were held in Wuhan in October. The Pentagon sent 17 teams with more than 280 athletes and other staff members to the event, well before any reported outbreaks. The Pentagon has had confirmed cases in South Korea and Italy and is bracing for more to emerge, but no illnesses have been tied to American service members from October.

Mr. Zhao’s remarks were spread on China’s most prominent social media platform, Weibo, under a hashtag: #ZhaoLijianPostedFiveTweetsinaRowQuestioningAmerica. By late afternoon on Friday, that hashtag had been viewed more than 160 million times, along with screenshots of the original Twitter posts.

The State Department summoned the Chinese ambassador on Friday to protest Mr. Zhao’s comments, officials in the Trump administration said.

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At the regular briefing at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday, another spokesman, Geng Shuang, sidestepped three questions about whether Mr. Zhao’s suggestion had politicized the crisis and reflected official Chinese policy.

He instead noted the statements made by American officials and lawmakers to “smear and attack” China.

“We are firmly opposed to this,” he said. “In fact, the international community, including the United States at home, have different views on the source of the virus. What I have been saying in recent days is that the Chinese side always believed that this is a scientific issue and requires scientific and professional opinions.”

Claire Fu contributed research.

The Coronavirus Outbreak
Answers to your most common questions:
Updated March 13, 2020

What is a coronavirus?
It is a novel virus named for the crownlike spikes that protrude from its surface. The coronavirus can infect both animals and people and can cause a range of respiratory illnesses from the common cold to lung lesions and pneumonia.
How contagious is the virus?
It seems to spread very easily from person to person, especially in homes, hospitals and other confined spaces. The pathogen can travel through the air, enveloped in tiny respiratory droplets that are produced when a sick person breathes, talks, coughs or sneezes.
Where has the virus spread?
The virus, which originated in Wuhan, China, has sickened more than 142,100 in at least 113 countries and more than 5,300 have died. The spread has slowed in China but is gaining speed in Europe and the United States. World Health Organization officials said the outbreak qualifies as a pandemic.
What symptoms should I look out for?
Symptoms, which can take between two to 14 days to appear, include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Milder cases may resemble the flu or a bad cold, but people may be able to pass on the virus even before they develop symptoms.
How do I keep myself and others safe?
Washing your hands frequently is the most important thing you can do, along with staying at home when you’re sick and avoiding touching your face.
How can I prepare for a possible outbreak?
Keep a 30-day supply of essential medicines. Get a flu shot. Have essential household items on hand. Have a support system in place for elderly family members.
What if I’m traveling?
The State Department has issued a global Level 3 health advisory telling United States citizens to “reconsider travel” to all countries because of the worldwide effects of the coronavirus. This is the department’s second-highest advisory.
How long will it take to develop a treatment or vaccine?
Several drugs are being tested, and some initial findings are expected soon. A vaccine to stop the spread is still at least a year away.

While coronavirus sweeps around the world, taking thousands of lives, there are glaring regions that have no – or very few, compared to their population – known cases.

In examining the spread of the pandemic, Africa – a continent of 54 nations and a total population of over 1.2 billion – as of Friday documented less than 100 cases, and only a handful of countries have recorded more than one infection. That includes 17 in South Africa, 26 in Algeria, and two in Nigeria and Burkina Faso.

A slew of other African countries such as Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, and Morocco have formally announced only one case in their borders, all stemming from people who traveled from abroad, coming from Europe.


Army soldiers spray disinfectant as a precaution against a new coronavirus at an apartment building in Daegu, South Korea, Monday, March 9, 2020. The world’s largest economies delivered more worrisome cues Monday as anxiety over the virus outbreak sent stock and oil prices plunging around the world.
Earlier this year, the World Health Organization (WHO) identified 13 countries in Africa being at exceptionally high risk of a coronavirus outbreak given that they have direct associations to China or that their travel apparatus directly links to the country where it all began, but the fear of a mass eruption has not materialized – yet.

Continue Reading Below

CORONAVIRUS TESTING MAY BE IMPACTED BY SHORTAGE OF CRUCIAL MATERIALS

In addition, Egypt – which sits on the cusp of North Africa and the Middle East – has tabulated more than 80 cases.

There is grave concern that as coronavirus continues to increase, it will eventually spread in Africa and further overburden an already deeply strained and fragile healthcare system. Michael Yao, WHO’s head of emergency operations in Africa, has vowed that early detection is pivotal because the continent’s health systems "are already overwhelmed by many ongoing disease outbreaks."

Nonetheless, there are many other parts of the world that, to date, have not clocked high case numbers despite often dense populations. For example, Mexico, with a population of 130 million, has recorded 15 cases, Russia, with a population of 145 million, has 45, and neighboring Ukraine with 43 million people has three confirmed.

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The reasons behind the low number of cases recorded are multi-faceted. Experts warn that just because officials aren’t declaring it does not mean that the virus is not unknowingly percolating. The overarching concern is simply that not enough tests have been conducted, thus not enough diagnosis has been made.

"Countries in Africa have poor public health systems and hardly any biosurveillance. Russia could be censoring the reports, like China," noted Andrew Huff, a San Francisco-based infectious disease epidemiologist. "The virus is going to burn through India, Africa, Central, and South America. There will be high numbers of cases and higher rates of death. Countries with older populations will have higher mortality."


A commuter wears a face mask while riding a nearly empty subway car into Brooklyn, Thursday, March 12, 2020, in New York. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said Thursday he will announce new restrictions on gatherings to halt the spread of the new coronavirus in the coming days, but he hopes to avoid closing all public events such as Broadway shows. For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms. For some it can cause more severe illness. (AP)

Then there are countries like North Korea, perhaps the most closed-off nation on the planet, in which officials have not announced a single case, or even acknowledged the existence of coronavirus. And yet, experts have surmised that the embattled nation bordering the two most impacted countries – China and South Korea – is secretly saddled with hundreds, if not thousands, of infections.

Dr. Sarah Raskin, an assistant professor at the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University, pointed out, another factor for low official numbers in certain regions is that those from wealthier countries often have greater access to travel and thus higher chance of picking up the novel pathogen.

"People with money that can travel might be more exposed than people that aren’t as mobile," Raskin said, "but we should anticipate that we will see community spread in lower resource countries because of a variety of factors."

That includes health systems not as well-financed or resourced, certain urban areas in lower resource countries where people live very close to one another, making social distancing hugely challenging.

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And while the consensus among professionals is that the role climate plays in either exacerbating or halting the new contagion is not – as of yet – entirely known, some professionals are conjecturing that, at least in the northern hemisphere, as temperatures rise into spring the spread of the coronavirus will correspondingly dissipate.

"This may be due to more activities outdoors with better social distancing or that the coronavirus may not thrive in warmer climates. It could be argued, however, that the disease has certainly spread in climates that are much more temperate," said Dr. Robert Quigley, Senior Vice President and Regional Medical Director of International SOS. "The available data to date has not been ample enough to determine whether exposure and infection provide immunity, through the auto- production of antibodies. It is hoped that, like in most other infections, the human immune system will develop resistance to secondary infection, but this is yet to be confirmed."

And some experts stressed that it is simply too early to tell why some countries appear to have greater outbreaks than others, but there could nonetheless be valuable information to gain from it.

"We should be looking to those countries’ hygiene practices at airports, immigration policies and screening activities to see if there are lessons to be learned and adopted in the U.S. and across Western Europe," surmised Summer McGee, Dean of the School of Health Sciences at the University of New Haven.

In Huff’s view, we could all be in this for the long haul.

"Our biggest fight now is keeping supply chains functioning. Everyone keeps talking about two to three months on the news," he added. "I think we are looking at more like 12 to 18 months, depending on how mitigation pans out."

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway.

The C.D.C. scenarios have not been publicly disclosed. Without an understanding of how experts view the threat, it remains unclear how far Americans will go in adopting socially disruptive steps that could help avert deaths.

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

LIVE UPDATESRead our live coverage of the coronavirus pandemic here.
The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow transmission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Those actions include testing for the virus, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.

The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate. The scenarios were marked valid until Feb. 28, but remain “roughly the same,” according to Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida. He has joined in meetings of the group.

The coronavirus has touched a diverse collection of countries and cultures, but a number of shared experiences have emerged — from grieving the dead to writing songs.
Credit…Image by Carlos Lemos/EPA, via Shutterstock
The C.D.C. declined interview requests about the modeling effort and referred a request for comment to the White House Coronavirus Task Force. Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for the task force, said that senior health officials had not presented the findings to the group, led by Vice President Mike Pence, and that nobody in Mr. Pence’s office “has seen or been briefed on these models.”

The assumptions in the C.D.C.’s four scenarios, and the new numerical projections, fall in the range of others developed by independent experts.

Dr. Longini said the scenarios he helped the C.D.C. refine had not been publicly disclosed because there remained uncertainty about certain key aspects, including how much transmission could occur from people who showed no symptoms or had only mild ones.

“We’re being very, very careful to make sure we have scientifically valid modeling that’s drawing properly on the epidemic and what’s known about the virus,” he said, warning that simple calculations could be misleading or even dangerous. “You can’t win. If you overdo it, you panic everybody. If you underdo it, they get complacent. You have to be careful.”

But without an understanding of how the nation’s top experts believe the virus could ravage the country, and what measures could slow it, it remains unclear how far Americans will go in adopting — or accepting — socially disruptive steps that could also avert deaths. And how quickly they will act.

Studies of previous epidemics have shown that the longer officials waited to encourage people to distance and protect themselves, the less useful those measures were in saving lives and preventing infections.

An isolate from the first U.S. case of Covid-19, the illness caused by coronavirus.Credit…Centers for Disease Control via Reuters
“A fire on your stove you could put out with a fire extinguisher, but if your kitchen is ablaze, that fire extinguisher probably won’t work,” said Dr. Carter Mecher, a senior medical adviser for public health at the Department of Veterans Affairs and a former director of medical preparedness policy at the White House during the Obama and Bush administrations. “Communities that pull the fire extinguisher early are much more effective.”

From Flu to Coronavirus
Dr. Biggerstaff presented his scenarios in a meeting held weekly to model the pandemic’s effects in the United States, Dr. Longini said. Its participants had been at work for several months before the emergence of the virus, modeling a potential influenza pandemic. “We just kind of retooled, re-shifted,” said Dr. Longini. “The priority’s now coronavirus.”

The four scenarios have different parameters, which is why the projections range so widely. They variously assume that each person with the coronavirus would infect either two or three people; that the hospitalization rate would be either 3 percent or 12; and that either 1 percent or a quarter of a percent of people experiencing symptoms would die. Those assumptions are based on what is known so far about how the virus has behaved in other contexts, including in China.

Other weekly C.D.C. modeling meetings center on how the virus is spreading internationally, the impact of community actions such as closing schools, and estimating the supply of respirators, oxygen and other resources that could be needed by the nation’s health system, participants said.

In the absence of public projections from the C.D.C., outside experts have stepped in to fill the void, especially in health care. Hospital leaders have called for more guidance from the federal government as to what might lie in store in the coming weeks.

Even severe flu seasons stress the nation’s hospitals to the point of setting up tents in parking lots and keeping people for days in emergency rooms. Coronavirus is likely to cause five to 10 times that burden of disease, said Dr. James Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist and public health expert at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. Hospitals “need to start working now,” he said, “to get prepared to take care of a heck of a lot of people.”

Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the United States would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.

Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, speaking at a congressional hearing on Thursday, said predictions based on models should be treated with caution. “All models are as good as the assumptions that you put into the model,” he said, responding to a question from Representative Rashida Tlaib about an estimate from the attending physician of Congress that the United States could have 70 million to 150 million coronavirus cases.

What will determine the ultimate number, he said, “will be how you respond to it with containment and mitigation.”

Clues From 1918
Independent experts said these projections were critically important to act on, and act on quickly. If new infections can be spread out over time rather than peaking all at once, there will be less burden on hospitals and a lower ultimate death count. Slowing the spread will paradoxically make the outbreak last longer, but will cause it to be much milder, the modelers said.

A Red Cross hospital in Wuhan, China, the outbreak’s epicenter. Credit…Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
A preliminary study released on Wednesday by the Institute for Disease Modeling projected that in the Seattle area, enhancing social distancing — limiting contact with groups of people — by 75 percent could reduce deaths caused by infections acquired in the next month from 400 to 30 in the region.

A recent paper, cited by Dr. Fauci at a news briefing on Tuesday, concludes that the rapid and aggressive quarantine and social distancing measures applied by China in cities outside of the outbreak’s epicenter achieved success. “Most countries only attempt social distancing and hygiene interventions when widespread transmission is apparent. This gives the virus many weeks to spread,” the paper said, with the average number of people each new patient infects higher than if the measures were in place much earlier, even before the virus is detected in the community.

“By the time you have a death in the community, you have a lot of cases already,” said Dr. Mecher. “It’s giving you insight into where the epidemic was, not where it is, when you have something fast moving.” He added: “Think starlight. That light isn’t from now, it’s from however long it took to get here.”

He said a single targeted step — a school closing, or a limit on mass gatherings — cannot stop an outbreak on its own. But as with Swiss cheese, layering them together can be effective.

This conclusion is backed up by history.

The most lethal pandemic to hit the United States was the 1918 Spanish flu, which was responsible for about 675,000 American deaths, according to estimates cited by the C.D.C.

The Institute for Disease Modeling calculated that the new coronavirus is roughly equally transmissible as the 1918 flu, and just slightly less clinically severe, and it is higher in both transmissibility and severity compared with all other flu viruses in the past century.

Dr. Mecher and other researchers studied deaths during that pandemic a century ago, comparing the experiences of various cities, including what were then America’s third- and fourth-largest, Philadelphia and St Louis. In October of that year Dr. Rupert Blue, America’s surgeon general, urged local authorities to “close all public gathering places if their community is threatened with the epidemic,” such as schools, churches, and theaters. “There is no way to put a nationwide closing order into effect,” he wrote, “as this is a matter which is up to the individual communities.”

The mayor of St. Louis quickly took that advice, closing for several weeks “theaters, moving picture shows, schools, pool and billiard halls, Sunday schools, cabarets, lodges, societies, public funerals, open air meetings, dance halls and conventions until further notice.” The death rate rose, but stayed relatively flat over that autumn.

Credit…PNAS
By contrast, Philadelphia took none of those measures; the epidemic there had started before Dr. Blue’s warning. Its death rate skyrocketed.

The speed and deadliness of the pandemic humbled doctors then much as the coronavirus pandemic is doing now. Some commented on the difficulty of getting healthy people to take personal precautions to help protect others at greater risk.

Modern societies have tools that did not exist then: advanced hospitals, the possibility of producing a vaccine in roughly a year, the production of diagnostics. But other signs are more worrying.

The world population is about triple the size it was the year before the 1918 flu, with 10 times as many people over 65 and 30 times as many over 85. These groups have proven especially likely to become critically ill and die in the current coronavirus pandemic. In Italy, hospitals are so overwhelmed that ventilators are being rationed.

“It’s so important that we protect them,” said Dr. Gabriel Leung, a professor in population health at Hong Kong University. In work accepted for publication in the journal Nature Medicine, he estimated that 1.5 percent of symptomatic people with the virus died. He and others who have devoted their careers to modeling said that looking at the experiences of other countries already battling the coronavirus was all it took to know what needed to be done in the United States.

“All U.S. cities and states have the natural experiment of the cities that have preceded us, namely the superb response of Singapore and Hong Kong,” said Dr. Michael Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Harvard. Those countries implemented school closures, eliminated mass gatherings, required work from home, and rigorously decontaminated their public transportation and infrastructure. They also conducted widespread testing.

They were able to “reduce an explosive epidemic to a steady state one,” Dr. Callahan said.

As in the case of an approaching hurricane, Dr. Mecher said, “You’ve got to take potentially very disruptive actions when the sun is shining and the breeze is mild.”

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ow to Clean Your Phone to Help Protect Against Coronavirus
It’s one thing to stop touching your face. It’s another to stop touching the things that touch your face.

The coronavirus is here, and it’s showing no signs of letting up. One of the best ways to protect yourself is to keep your hands clean and off your face, but it’s hard to maintain constant vigilance.

Keeping your phone sanitized is another smart way to keep germs off your fingertips. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers your phone a “high-touch surface,” which could make it a carrier of the virus.

But cleaning your phone — thoroughly, I mean — is not as straightforward as it might seem. There are all sorts of nooks and crannies, delicate glass and intricate protective cases.

Chelsea Manning Is Ordered Released From Jail
The former Army analyst had been jailed last year for refusing to testify before a grand jury investigating WikiLeaks and Julian Assange.

Chelsea Manning has been celebrated by antiwar activists since she was identified in 2011 as the source who leaked hundreds of thousands of military and diplomatic documents to

WASHINGTON — A federal judge on Thursday ordered the release of Chelsea Manning, the former Army intelligence analyst who in 2010 leaked archives of military and diplomatic documents to WikiLeaks, and who was jailed last year for refusing to testify before a grand jury that is investigating the organization and its founder, Julian Assange.

The release came one day after Ms. Manning tried to kill herself and was hospitalized, according to her lawyers.

In a brief opinion, a Federal District Court judge overseeing the matter, Anthony J. Trenga, said that he also dismissed on Thursday the grand jury that Ms. Manning was refusing to testify before after finding that its business had concluded.

“The court finds that Ms. Manning’s appearance before the grand jury is no longer needed, in light of which her detention no longer serves any coercive purpose,” Judge Trenga wrote.

However, he said, Ms. Manning would still have to pay $256,000 in fines for her defiance of the subpoena. The judge wrote that “enforcement of the accrued, conditional fines would not be punitive but rather necessary to the coercive purpose of the court’s civil contempt order.”

Ms. Manning was originally jailed a year ago for contempt of court after initially refusing to testify about WikiLeaks and Mr. Assange, but was briefly released when the first grand jury expired. Prosecutors then obtained a new subpoena, and she was locked up again for defying it in May. The moves raise the possibility that prosecutors could start over a third time.

But supporters of Ms. Manning had believed that the grand jury was not set to terminate on March 12, raising the prospect that prosecutors and the judge decided to shut it down early to bring the matter to a close.

“It is my devout hope that she is released to us shortly, and that she is finally given a meaningful opportunity to rest and heal that she so richly deserves,” said her lawyer, Moira Meltzer-Cohen.
Joshua Stueve, a spokesman for the office of the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, declined to comment.

The archives that Ms. Manning provided to WikiLeaks in 2010, when she was an Army intelligence analyst posted in Iraq, helped vault the antisecrecy organization and Mr. Assange to global fame. The events took place years before their image and actions evolved with the publication of Democratic emails stolen by Russian hackers during the 2016 election.

Ms. Manning admitted sending the files to WikiLeaks in a court-martial trial. She also confessed to interacting online with someone who was probably Mr. Assange, but she said she had acted on principle and was not working for WikiLeaks.

Testimony showed that she had been deteriorating, mentally and emotionally, during the period when she downloaded the documents and sent them to WikiLeaks. Then known as Pfc. Bradley Manning, she was struggling with gender dysphoria under conditions of extraordinary stress and isolation while deployed to the Iraq war zone.
She was sentenced to 35 years in prison — the longest sentence by far in an American leak case. After her conviction, she changed her name to Chelsea and announced that she wanted to undergo gender transition, but was housed in a male military prison and twice tried to commit suicide in 2016.

In January 2017, President Barack Obama commuted most of the remainder of her sentence shortly before he left office. But she was swept back up into legal trouble last year when prosecutors investigating Mr. Assange subpoenaed her to testify before a grand jury about their interactions.

Although prosecutors granted immunity for her testimony, Ms. Manning had vowed not to cooperate in the investigation, saying she had ethical objections, and she was placed in civil detention for contempt of court.

Separately last year, the Justice Department unsealed criminal charges against Mr. Assange, who was living in the Ecuadorean Embassy in London. Prosecutors initially charged him with a narrow hacking conspiracy offense, accusing him of agreeing to try to help Ms. Manning crack a password that would have let her log onto a military computer system under a different user account, covering her tracks.
But prosecutors later significantly expanded the case against Mr. Assange by bringing charges against him under the Espionage Act for soliciting, receiving and publishing classified information — raising novel First Amendment issues. Mr. Assange has been fighting extradition in a London court.